Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Both composes two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has got something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
